China and Taiwan - an explainer.

Image Source: the Sun Newspaper.

The China and Taiwan impasse is a rather simple issue of leadership arguing over who has authority over who. Modern Taiwan was established by a government (Chiang Kai-shek's nationalist government) who were ousted by rebels (Chairman Mao Zedong's Chinese Communist Party). 

Chiang Kai-shek's government ran away to the Chinese Island territory of Taiwan (or Formosa in the Western literature) after Mao's Communist rebels won the Chinese civil war. Both Chiang Kai-shek's government and the Communist government by Mao claimed authority over all of China (mainland and Taiwan) after the Civil War. So the official name of Taiwan according to Chiang Kai-shek and his predecessors in Taiwan is the Republic of China(ROC). The victorious communists, for obvious reasons, named their country the Peoples Republic of China(PRC). 

Realpolitik led to the nationalist government of Chiang Kai-shek's ROC (Taiwan) losing international recognition as the legitimate government of China and Mao's PRC becoming the internationally recognized government of China. After WWII, one of the largest militaries that allied with the Soviet Union was Mao's PRC. They were communists (Maosts) of course. So throughout the cold war, the Americans generally propped up the military dictatorship of Chiang Kai-shek in ROC(Taiwan) to counter the Communist Mao government in Beijing. So it is safe to say that ROC is one of the most capable militaries in the world right now. They have powerful American fighter jets such as the F-16 and the French Mirage 2000 jet in addition to frigates, corvettes, and destroyers for their navy. Let's just say that they are not a pushover. Mainly due to American support and funding. Alone, China could realistically overrun the island.

One crucial issue with Taiwan though is that it has become one of the most industrialized and high tech countries in the world. And so are tightly integrated to the global economy. And since Chiang Kai-shek's dictatorship ended, they've steadily become a beacon of democracy in South East Asia. Some analysts say that people in the ROC are generally more westernized (because of the rapid industrialization and mass cultural exchanges with the West) as well as traditionally more Chinese than the mainlanders (due to the destruction caused by the cultural revolution by the communists in the mainland). 

To many analysts, the Taiwanese are very different from the Chinese at the moment even though they are all Han Chinese for the most part. So any talk about unification is not going to be good for the Taiwanese who are now used to their freedoms, prosperity and democracy. They tend to cite what is happening in Hong Kong after reunification with the mainland to justify these fears. However, there are people (not sure exact  strength--under 30% though) in Taiwan who are partial to reunification under the right circumstances. So it is not entirely 100% of Taiwanese who do not like reunification with Beijing even though it is highly unpopular on the island. 

The PRC leadership in Beijing however holds the view that it has the right to bring Taiwan back into China whether through negotiation or by force. They still hold the view that Taiwan is a breakaway province and should be brought back into the fold and direction of Beijing. 

Remember I told you that Taiwan is a high tech manufacturing island? A Beijing invasion of Taiwan will be catastrophic for the global economy. You and I may not be able to buy phones or microwaves once that invasion starts. The Taiwanese semiconductor industry alone accounts for more than half the global supply of chips needed for the functioning of phones, fridges, aeroplanes, cars, etc. Without them, the high tech sector will collapse overnight. And if China invades Taiwan, and the West imposed sanctions, the tech sector is finished as we know it. China alone also accounts for 30% of the semiconductor market. As for other manufacturing, let's just say that China is the world's factory. 

China cannot be sanctioned like the Russians have been sanctioned (we should brace purse for higher food prices due to the invasion of Ukraine though. Russia is a large agricultural exporter (of wheat in particular) and Ukraine is a major agricultural exporter as well. So this invasion will still cause havoc on food prices around the world. 

China and Taiwan are a different ballgame all together. Messing with either will collapse the world economy. China is just too vast and its economy too intricately woven into the world economy to allow for it to be sanctioned without extreme blowback of earth shattering proportions to the rest of the world. So I do not think there'll be an invasion of Taiwan. The stakes are just too high for China itself and everyone involved. Unlike Ukraine, the US has binding bilateral agreements to Taiwan to defend them in case of external attack. A Chinese invasion of Taiwan will necessitate American involvement and that will not be good for any of us, the belligerents included. 

Honestly though, I don't think the Chinese will invade.